Overview
We were promised a world in which most people can make a decent living, politicians have to listen to voters, and we feel a sense of being needed. But the conditions that made these achievements possible are proving surprisingly fragile. Now, artificial intelligence is starting to destroy them.
For the past two hundred years, Yascha Mounk argues, our world has been defined by the Modern Bargain. The Industrial Revolution increased demand for human labor, raising wages, and building the middle class. The elite’s dependence on skilled workers and loyal soldiers empowered ordinary people, ushering in the democratic age. And the need to make a living gave most people a concrete answer to the question of why get up in the morning.
Artificial intelligence is undermining the foundations of that world. Large language models and increasingly capable robots will automate many of the jobs that now provide income, meaning, and social standing. Breathless predictions that virtually every job will soon disappear are overblown. But over the coming decades, skilled labor really will become far less scarce—and the middle class, already under serious strain, will pay the price.
When one domino falls, others follow. Millions who lose their jobs will demand to be made whole. But as pressure for redistribution rises, elites will be increasingly tempted to turn against democracy. And as surveillance and repression become cheaper, the rich and powerful will become more capable of defying the people. When elites have less need for ordinary citizens, the calculus of democracy turns sour.
Even our sense of who we are is in danger. What makes humans special when we are no longer the only beings capable of writing a poem or directing a movie? Will we still feel needed once machines can do much of what now fills our days?
We are living through one of the most radical transformations in human history. If we simply let the technology rip, it will destroy the conditions for modern prosperity and democracy, making millions of people dispensable. But we can still strike a new bargain, one that gives everyone a stake in the wealth created by machines and keeps ordinary people in control.
The world we have known is coming to an end. It is up to us to make sure that humans remain indispensable in the one that replaces it.
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